SMATS FX is proud to provide our weekly analysis of currency markets and exchange rates.
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USD |
The Greenback has experienced some serious volatility following Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential elections, that is expected to continue with a few top-tier data reports likely to add to the choppy waters. On Wednesday, the durable goods orders for October is expected to rise by 0.8% after a 1.9% climb in September a few hours later the personal spending for October has been forecast to rise by 0.9% while the personal income only rises by 0.5%. Later on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will be giving their meeting minutes which should shake the markets if anything serious is mentioned. Influences on HKD, SGD & AED Emerging market currencies continue their rally despite the weakening USD on the back of vaccine hopes. During Monday’s Asian trading session, Singapore saw their GDP growth rate for the 3rd quarter beat expectations and check in at 9.2% while their current account came in at SG$22.91 B. Singapore will be releasing their export and import prices on Friday but we don’t expect the releases to have a significant impact on the rates. Hong Kong will release their balance of trade for October on Tuesday, it is expected to check in at HK$- 11 B. The UAE expect their loan growth to increase from 4.9% to 5.1%. |
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AUD |
The Australian Dollar will need risk sentiment to drive its value this week in the absence of top-tier data reports. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Guy Debelle will be speaking on monetary policy on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank’s concerns over the strength of the AUD and possible negative interest rates. Australia and China trade tension can impact demand for the AUD this week as pandemic related updates should continue to affect the Aussie Dollar. |
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NZD |
Much like its trading partner, the Kiwi Dollar will look towards risk appetite to drive its price this week. The most important release for the NZD this week will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s financial stability report which is due out on Tuesday. All eyes will be on the RBNZ after hinting at negative interest rates and they will be looking at the report for ways to stimulate the economy. The strong NZD is expected to remain volatile this week as we assess how eager the RBNZ is to enforce negative interest rates. |
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EUR |
The Euro took a hit last week after the European Central Bank hinted at possible easing in the remainder of the year but Brexit headlines and eurozone PMIs are likely to take centre stage for the Euro this week. France: Services to slip from 46.5 to 39.2 and the manufacturing PMI is likely to drop from 51.3 to 50.2 Germany: Services PMI expected to fall from 49.5 to 46.1 while the manufacturing figure should decline from 58.2 to 56.0. Eurozone: Services PMI has been forecast to fall to 42.2 from 46.9 and the manufacturing figure should fall from 54.8 to 53.2. A Brexit deal is apparently on the cards for this week which could bring the European currency a much-needed boost. |
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GBP |
Positive GBP data last week buoyed GBP pairs last week as Brexit starts to wind down to its final deadline. Flash PMI reports are due out this week, the manufacturing PMI is expected to fall from 53.7 to 50.5 in November while the services figure looks set to drop from 51.4 to 43.2, the strict lockdown measures will continue to impact business activity. Brexit is expected to be at the forefront of the news for the remainder of the year as optimism rises after EU ambassadors said that a deal could be finalized soon as UK PM Boris Johnson is set to speak to the European Commission this week. |
