The outlook for Queensland coastal properties during the next 12 months is sunny in parts.
Locations with major infrastructure and broad economies will be the biggest winners.
Star performers are tipped to be Broadbeach on the Gold Coast and beaches surrounding the regional city of Mackay, which is flourishing on the back of the resources boom.
Airlie Beach will remain strong because the mainland Whitsunday market has reached a critical mass that can sustain its own momentum, and experienced developers are continuing to roll into the township, according to analyst Michael Matusik of Matusik Property Insights. In fact, the latest Midwood Queensland Investment Report identifies the Mackay-Whitsunday region as one of Queensland's fastest-growing economies, fuelled by the coal industry and increased access via the cheaper airlines.
Other more remote locations such as Rainbow Beach just north of Noosa, Bargara near Bundaberg, and Mission Beach will benefit from those sea-change buyers now willing to venture further out of capital cities in exchange for smaller crowds on the sand.
Also infill suburbs, such as Palm Beach on the Gold Coast, will emerge as hot spots.
The losers?
Those destinations with a lot of "me too stock", Matusik warns.
Caloundra, at the southern end of the Sunshine Coast, is a prime example, where there is oversupply of secondary resale unit stock and activity is tipped to brake further during the year, he says.
Also, people who bought Gold Coast high-rise units in 2003 and need to sell within the next two years will find it tough to achieve price expectations, Matusik says.
The North Queensland market is patchy, with properties in secondary Townsville and Cairns locations targeting the middle market likely to stagnate.
But at the bottom end of the market, Dean Dederer, North Queensland research manager for PRDnationwide, says recent research on the Cairns unit market reveals that buyers are willing to trade off secondary locations to secure a foothold in the market.
The September-quarter sales volumes for Cairns apartments were particularly strong, with the 212 deals recorded up 70 per cent on the June-quarter levels, Dederer says. Driving the rise in sales was a surge in buying at the lower end of the market, with 48 per cent of the deals recorded in the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket.
It's a similar story in Townsville, where there is good demand for cheaper, entry-point stock but not much product of this nature, Dederer says.
The hardest-hit sector will be middle-market dwellings. "Those properties of medium quality, medium price in medium locations are probably going to be the tough market," Dederer forecasts.
