Amid all the panic-driven illogic dominating debate about the impact of global financial upheaval, occasionally a voice of reason emerges.
One such is Grant King, managing director of Origin Energy, which is embarking on a $9.5 billion deal with US energy giant Conoco Phillips to develop coal seam gas assets.
Making such a commitment at such a time has astounded those who believe the world is about to end. But King says: "I think it's important to recognise, in these more challenging times, that not all of the sectors of the economy are in distress." That's lesson one.
This, also from King, is lesson two: "We make investment decisions in assets that have economic lives of 30 years or more. And so cycles that play out over a year or two are basically irrelevant. We're fundamentally driven by the long-term view."
King was talking about resources but his comments apply equally to real estate. Property investment is a long-term strategy.
This has been forgotten by the fearful investors who have contacted me with questions such as: "Should I sell my house in Moonee Ponds? Everyone says values will fall and I want to get out before it's too late."
Take a look at any real estate blog and you'll find lots of crazed property owners like that.
I often wonder -- while watching the headless chooks driving the share market roller-coaster, the schizophrenic behaviour of the Reserve Bank and the "sell while you have the chance!" proponents in real estate -- whether anyone has an actual strategy.
If you do have a strategy, a long-term plan, you'll regard the economic turmoil as irrelevant -- other than the opportunities it presents. As legendary US billionaire Warren Buffett says: "Profit from folly, rather than participate in it."
The federal Government, with its $10.4 billion package to bolster the economy, has just handed down a treasure chest of opportunities.
The aim is to boost the domestic economy. The Government wants to stimulate retail spending and home building.
It's given a handout to pensioners and families, while offering first-home buyers a $21,000 incentive to buy a newly built home. It's hinted there's more to come.
Taking a medium-term view, I see opportunities in retail property evolving from higher levels of home building.
Australia has been under-building homes at a time of high population growth. The Rudd package is expected to inspire an extra 15,000 homes.
Recently the Housing Industry Association, which occasionally does something constructive, published "The Hot and Cold of New Home Building", which identified areas of under-building -- the "coldspots" where structural constraints, rather than lack of demand, have prevented a higher level of building.
It says: "The best example of this coldspot situation is Sydney.
"New construction has been extremely weak due to both structural factors and cyclical factors. The result is a shortage of new housing stock of at least 15,000 dwellings per annum."
The undersupplied regions include Fairfield-Liverpool, central western Sydney, outer western Sydney and Gosford-Wyong.
One of the constraints is the cost differential between the new product and the existing home down the road. A $21,000 gift goes some way to closing the gap.
Macquarie Bank head of property research Rod Cornish says: "There's been very little construction in the west or southwest of Sydney, partly because it hasn't been profitable.
"Dwelling construction in NSW is at 30-year lows. We're now likely to see some improvement in housing demand, particularly as migration into NSW is at levels we haven't seen since 2001."
Melbourne represents an opportunity too because it has more affordable land than Sydney or Brisbane.
Research by valuer Charter Keck Cramer finds that the typical Melbourne home site is selling for $158,000. In Sydney, it's $265,000 and in Brisbane $249,000. That suggests Melbourne has a $100,000 head-start in the affordability handicap.
When the federal Government handout flows into home building, it will stimulate demand for convenience retail and bulky goods stores.
Not everywhere, however, because some locales are amply supplied already, including areas where developers have built ahead of time in anticipation of future population demand.
Cornish says: "Retail construction has been fairly strong, particularly in southeast Queensland and some parts of Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.
"Some of that retail is under-performing because the construction of homes wasn't quick enough to support that retail."
The key factors to seek are areas with rising populations, inspired by the new building, but also with rising incomes.
Employment is important, which is another reason why western Sydney appeals, notably those areas of major new warehouse facilities around the M4-M7 intersection.
It's not just about houses, of course. It's also about apartments, which are becoming more popular for their affordability and low-maintenance lifestyle.
Many of our biggest cities, including Sydney, intend to accommodate future population growth through higher densities.
Few things bode better for retail property than an increase in residential density.
Perth analyst Gavin Hegney says: "Increased density means an increasing catchment and pedestrian flow.
"Areas like East Perth and Subiaco have seen density increase, which has provided commercial opportunities.
"In non-sexy areas of Perth like Balga, Joondanna and Tuart Hill, we're seeing medium-density areas emerge where one house is knocked down and four townhouses are built.
"So we have a changing demographic and increasing demand -- and that provides a formula for retail and small commercial."
