Australia will look very different in 2051, with almost one in two Australians being older than 50 years, according to the latest population projections released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this week. These projections, which are not intended as forecasts, are based on a series of assumptions that take into account recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.
By 2051 Australia's population is expected to increase to between 25 and 33 million people, with around 44 to 48 per cent being older than 50 years. In 2004, Australia's population was 20 million people, with almost one third being older than 50 years. The ageing of Australia's population is the result of sustained low fertility, combined with increasing life expectancy at birth.
The number of people aged 65 years and over will increase rapidly over the next 50 years, from 2.6 million in 2004 to between 7 and 9 million people in 2051. By then, slightly more than one in four Australians will be aged 65 years and over (double what it was in 2004).
The number of people aged 85 years and over will increase even faster, from just below 300,000 people in 2004 to between 1.6 million and 2.7 million people in 2051. By then, people aged 85 years and over will make up 6 to 8 per cent of Australia's population, compared to only 1.5 per cent in 2004.
Australia's population aged 15-64 years, which encompasses much of the working-age population, is projected to decline from 67 per cent in 2004 to around 57-59 per cent in 2051.
All states and territories, except Tasmania and South Australia, are projected to increase in population by 2051. Queensland is projected to increase by 77 per cent, the Northern Territory by 75 per cent and Western Australia by 60 per cent.
New South Wales will remain the most populous state in Australia, while Queensland is projected to replace Victoria as the second most populous state in 2041. Western Australia will increase its share of Australia's population, while South Australia's and Tasmania's shares will decline. South Australia's population will peak in 2032 and Tasmania's in 2024.
All capital cities will experience higher percentage growth than their respective rest of state, resulting in further concentration of Australia's population in the capital cities. Two out of three Australians (66 per cent) will live in a capital city in 2051 (64 per cent in 2004). Sydney and Melbourne will remain the two most populous cities in Australia, while Darwin is projected to exceed Hobart in population from 2049.
